Risk Analysis Methods (Likelihood)

The Monte Carlo simulation is one of the stochastic simulation methods in which random numbers are used within certain ranges for the calculation of the scenarios. To estimate risks or decisions under uncertainty, stochastic and dynamic methods are almost exclusively used today. With the help of Monte Carlo simulation, the impact of different decisions and their probability of occurrence can be estimated using synthetic data. It is a calculation method to simulate extreme cases, but also to secure everyday decisions. This makes it usable for a wide variety of industries.

The preliminary hazard analysis (PHA) is a semi-quantitative risk analysis methods that is used to identify potential hazards and the corresponding top events (risks). The PHA sheet identifies as well the required measures and follow-up actions to control the hazard sources. The PHA should consider hazardous components, facilities, safety-related equipment, and environmental constraints.

In a qualitative approach, risks are usually categorized into “high”, “medium” and “low”, and are represented in a risk matrix. This risk matrix represents the possibility and severity in order to integrate the potential accident scenarios that were identified in the threat identification stage. Inside the matrix, the criticality of a risk, through the use of colors, can identified. The results provided by this matrix can be used to compare risks and identify improvement and mitigation measures.