Quantitative Methods

The Seatrack Web system consists of three main parts: forcing in the form of forecasted flow and wind felds, an oil drift model and a graphical user interface. The oil drift model PADM has been jointly developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the Danish Maritime Safety Administration (DAMSA). It is executed whenever a Seatrack Web user requests a simulation. The graphical user interface has been developed at SMHI and is based on open source GIS-server technology, i.e. the user interacts with georeferenced data in a map. The SeaTrack Web tool can be used to analyze the consequences of oil spill drift to a particular sea area, Where does the oil spill drift to in the sea area. The method is selected based on the cooperation with the OpenRisk Project.

The ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practicable) principle is based on the fundamental thinking of ‘acceptable’ or ‘tolerable’ risks. It allows analysts and decision makers to define boundaries to combine probability-consequence scales. These boundaries can be used to delineate acceptable and intolerable risks. This allows decision makers to evaluate whether a system or process poses certain risks which need to be treated using risk-control options. The ALARP principle can easily be combined with tools such as Risk Matrices to graphically represent the boundaries of risk tolerability.

The Cause-Consequence Diagram is developed from a certain initiating top event, i.e. an event that initiates a specific operational sequence or an event which activates certain safety systems. The Cause-Consequence Diagram consists of two reliability analysis methods previously elaborated, the FTA and ETA methods.

The Delphi method was developed in order to identify possible targets in the USA during the Cold War. The Delphi method was gradually applied in civilian areas and is now frequently used for political and social questions and issues, for the development of science and technology and in the business environment (e.g. marketing, R&D). The Delphi method is a structured group communication process with the aim of answering questions or finding a consensus on facts about which uncertain and incomplete knowledge naturally exists.

The FTA (fault tree analysis) is a scientific method for detailed fault analysis. It serves the systematic identification and documentation of possible causes for errors or misconduct. Found causes are broken down as precisely as possible to get a comprehensive fault analysis.