Originally, the scenario technique came from the military field, but today it is also frequently used for economic and social issues. Basically, the scenario technique combines quantitative and qualitative forecasting elements. Thus, no pure linear projection is made on the basis of historical data. The aim of the procedure is to prepare companies for future developments in order to improve their ability to act. The complexity is reduced by the calculation and exclusion of inconsistent future developments. The scenario technique provides consistent future projections based on the information collected during the process.
Risk Analysis - Causes/Threats
Risk Analysis - Consequences
Due to the complexity of the analysis, a team of expert is required. Some phases of the scenario technique require the use of special software.
At the beginning, a team should be formed and a clear project goal should be defined. The scenario technique can be summarized in five phases:
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