Description
Originally, the scenario technique came from the military field, but today it is also frequently used for economic and social issues. Basically, the scenario technique combines quantitative and qualitative forecasting elements. Thus, no pure linear projection is made on the basis of historical data. The aim of the procedure is to prepare companies for future developments in order to improve their ability to act. The complexity is reduced by the calculation and exclusion of inconsistent future developments. The scenario technique provides consistent future projections based on the information collected during the process.
Effort
High
Complexity
High
Method Type
Quantitative
Qualitative
ISO 31000
Risk Analysis - Causes/Threats
Risk Analysis - Consequences
Risk Evaluation
Prerequisites
Due to the complexity of the analysis, a team of expert is required. Some phases of the scenario technique require the use of special software.
Basic Approach
At the beginning, a team should be formed and a clear project goal should be defined. The scenario technique can be summarized in five phases:
- Preparation and definition of the design field
- Analysis of the scenario field
- Projection of identified trends
- Creation of scenarios
- Transfer of scenarios
Advantages
- Several possible alternatives are considered
- Combination of quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods
- Extreme scenarios are taken into account
- Preparing for an uncertain future
Disadvantages
- High time expenditure
- Cost-intensive, since it is associated with high personnel expenditure and possibly external services (purchase of consultants / data)
- Software might be required
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