Risk Analysis Methods (Severity)

The Cause-Consequence Diagram is developed from a certain initiating top event, i.e. an event that initiates a specific operational sequence or an event which activates certain safety systems. The Cause-Consequence Diagram consists of two reliability analysis methods previously elaborated, the FTA and ETA methods.

The Delphi method was developed in order to identify possible targets in the USA during the Cold War. The Delphi method was gradually applied in civilian areas and is now frequently used for political and social questions and issues, for the development of science and technology and in the business environment (e.g. marketing, R&D). The Delphi method is a structured group communication process with the aim of answering questions or finding a consensus on facts about which uncertain and incomplete knowledge naturally exists.

The Failure Mode and Effects Analysis is a cross-industry established method to identify and eliminate potential failures, problems, errors and risks of a system, design or process before adverse consequences reach the internal/external customers. The basic idea of the FMEA is thus the preventive risk identification and error prevention instead of a subsequent correction. 

The hazard diamond is used to identify and analyze the different risks associated with hazard sources. The hazard diamond or the so-called fire diamond is defined in the NFPA (704) which is the Standard System for the Identification of the Hazards of Materials for Emergency Response. The four divisions of the diamond are color-coded to represent flammability (red), health hazard (blue), chemical reactivity (yellow) and special hazards (white).The Hazard diamond is normally used to identify the risk associated with hazardous materials and dangerous goods.

The Monte Carlo simulation is one of the stochastic simulation methods in which random numbers are used within certain ranges for the calculation of the scenarios. To estimate risks or decisions under uncertainty, stochastic and dynamic methods are almost exclusively used today. With the help of Monte Carlo simulation, the impact of different decisions and their probability of occurrence can be estimated using synthetic data. It is a calculation method to simulate extreme cases, but also to secure everyday decisions. This makes it usable for a wide variety of industries.